Well, here I am. It is 1:12 AM, and I am wide awake, having made the foolish mistake of falling asleep to CNN (and hence waking up to it not much later). What a dreadful network, though good to know that they are going to stamp out human slavery (about time someone did that... really).
There have been water sytem issues and rolling blackouts in Tsukuba (I'm drinking Sapporo in a dimly lit hotel room to do my part). I gather these problems are getting sorted out, so I'll need a different excuse soon.
I settled into my accommodations for the night (The Daiwa Roynet Hotel -- even in this stressful time, the staff are unfailingly friendly and courteous). My twitter about being in Tsukuba got a raised-eyebrow mention concerning the latest status report on the Fukushima reactors.
A friend in Seattle sent me a link concerning measured radiation levels by prefectures, and the numbers are alarming. Reading the comments, though, one is reminded of how tricky risk assessment is, and in particular when the technicalities and uncertainties are as great as in the present circumstance.
I wish I had absorbed a bit more from my radionuclides class in graduate school. The dominant memory from that term was waking with a start in the class, my notes in front of me having trailed into illegibility like a flattening EKG. I can't recall, before or since, falling asleep in the act of writing.
So, reading these reports, I realize that I am incompetent to evaluate them. I flail for truth, or even simple facts that admit common sense interpretation. My ham-fisted decision framework for deciding whether to stand or run is shaping up something like this:
- Governments are unlikely to be reliable sources of good decision-making fodder. Eschew the pronouncements of bureaucrats.
- Radioactivity releases that do not involve the spewing of heavy metals into the atmosphere are probably not a serious threat at a distance.
- Significant venting or additional systems malfunctions at the Tokai nuclear power station (45 miles distant) will make me an avid student of travel timetables in Japan (which of course will be futile, as the queue will be rather long).
- Containment vessel breeches in any of the Fukushima reactors (120 miles distant) will furrow my brow and shake my confidence.
- Containment vessel breeches in the Tokai plant will occasion flight.
- Pay attention to what the locals are doing and saying (yes, problematic given my exceedingly limited Japanese language skills). There is an English-language Facebook group for Tsukuba residents that will help (thanks, Melissa).
- Pay attention to what actual scientists say to those of us with limited expertise. My go-to site for this is now the MIT Nuclear Information Hub (http://web.mit.edu/nse/).
Suggestions for elaboration welcome.
-----
Narita was very quiet this afternoon... spooky.
I
